How to Trade Our PUT HEDGE With Futures Down 3% from Friday
Dear Subscriber,
ONLY do this trade IF you are going to be in front a screen at 9:30 open!
Last weeks PUT Hedge was a nice 90% winner IF you put a 5% trailing sell stop at the 800 point down open.
Same catalyst: BIG spike in new COVID-19 infections in the "everything is normal again" states.
Buy to Open SPY 06/22/2020 308.00 PUT OPTION @ Market
We made this trade at the same time you all did--with $10k per account the trade is up about 60% as I type this--sure beats working eh? So as I have shared with a number of All-Access members via text this evening, the game plan is the same as last weeks 800 points down open:
1) EXPECT a whoosh down-sell HALF your position--with $10k position that gets most/all your original capital back.
2) THEN put a trailing sell stop above that low and HOPE the index goes lower and flush out all the sellers.
3) IF the index continues to fall, the trailing sell stop will move lower and lower--that's good
4) IF the market reverses (like when Fed Chairman came in last Monday and said "The Fed is Buying an UNLIMITED Amount of Corporate Bonds"--you sell stop will be hit and you have made some very nice returns.
BUT YOU HAVE TO BE UP and In Your Trading Account at 6.20 PST OK?
As one AAccess member just texted me; "I threw $8 into the Puts and was up 60% by the end of the day!"
The idea here is to NOT LOSE ANY of that existing profit, ok kids?
Set an Alarm if you are on the West Coast/AZ time--it's worth it.
If we double our $10k with a $10k or higher trade profit, that is the easiest $10 grand you will ever make (legally!).
But again--the idea of these Monday Covid-19 trades is "MASS Economic Openings WITHOUT MASKS = RECORD NEW INFEACTIONS.
Which is what was reported today, Sunday in the United States. 17 States report higher infection cases and 32,000 on Sunday alone. No wonder Mr. Trump has slowed down testing, eh? Seems we have leadership that is terribly allergic to bad news.
This trade is working because it is entirely based on the ginormous levels of denial in many parts of the country about COVID-19 infection rates. Even in SCOTTSDALE, the Maricopa County Health Commissioner backtracked on "mask optional--everything open" and yesterday declared "Marshall Mask Law" as is it is "illegal to go into a public facility without a mask--this is not optional."
So in fact, like in many investing cases, we are making money based on the endemic stupidity and predictable human behavior of the American public.
Sad, but true.
Toby
PS #1--For ALL You NEW All-Access Members, we are working on a Slack channel but the best way to get questions answered OR MAKE TRADE Suggestions (which we LOVE!) is via the Drift bot on the web site or by my business text 301 412-8622. I LIVE on Text and Drift--so you will have answers quickly from me or a team member.
#2) What I nor anyone in my managed account staff can do legally is give you PERSONAL advice about "how many shares of XYZ should I own" questions. Here is how securities law works
Securities law says as an investment newsletter publisher, we are exempt from fiduciary liability as long as we are publishing "general information" and not giving specific personal advice.
Our money management clients pay 1.5% fee + performance bonus (10% of profit/income OVER the S&P 500 and High Yield Bond fund HYR ETF) where we ARE a fiduciary.
We can't by law give you "specific non-generalized portfolio advice" or we cross the line and lose our financial publishing exemption (my former employer Phillips Publishing won a Supreme Court ruling in 1978 on this issue).
But JUST for you--I will republish our general portfolio advice. We publish the Ultra Growth and Ultra Income portfolios with $10k in EACH security--including when we buy or sell an option. For many of our subs, each position gets $100k and each option much more.
But YOU KNOW your financial situation and risk tolerance--what percentage you are comfortable being in Ultra Growth and Ultra Income. The general advice is to take your age and use that number as a percentage for income, and the rest in growth--that is as far as we can go.
Cheers!
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
YOUR call--just want you to know what we are doing with OUR managed money! It is cheap insurance.
Have a great weekend!
PS--When you get a general audience email that reminds them they are NOT an All-Access member, remember YOU ARE!
We send you general audience emails too, ok?
TS