February 2017 Newsletter


Well just like at your dinner table of Facebook page, everything in the stock market now is POLITICAL. Never since the opening of the Obama White House is the middle of Great Recession meltdown have I and my team spent as much time analyzing politics as transformational sectors and stocks.

So...in this February 2017 newsletter I want to bring you REALITY on one month into Trumponomics and a CLEAR IDEA of the risks and opportunities we face in under this activist and populist administration. I’ll talk about our stocks and other investments early next  as the fallout from the State of the Union starts to gel (or if something happens between then).  I’ll also put out a Jan/Feb stock update at the end of the week

Action to Take: We ARE going to

build some cash over the next few weeks: as I advised earlier this month IF you need cash for balance or any reason, or you just feel better with more cash, trim your biggest positions (especially one's that you have long term capital gains in).

  1. We are going to buy a portfolio hedge when the technicals say this run is out of gas
  2. We ARE going to replace some of our 200%-300% winners with long term options in order to lock in long term capital gains and still keep upside I expect
  3. WHEN we get the much overdue correction we WILL put our cash to work. NOTE: the BIGGEST winning positions we have had in the last 3 years is when we doubled down on great secular growth companies like Nvidia, Micron, AMD, Newtek etc. 
  4. We are generally going to further reduce our risk exposure into the March Fed meeting if the market odds of rate raise go to >70%
  5. We are going to watch the legislative trajectory of ACA repeal very carefully.

We have an April 28th extension of the on-going budget reconciliation acts of the previous Congress (which as you know did not produce an actual spending budget in the last seven years). It will be rubber stamped of course.

BUT...let's get into the meat of understanding the political risk to our stock portfolios with a new administration filled with political neophytes and ideologues...you know the folks that that the entire stock market has made significant bets for and against.  

Trumponomics vs. the Bannonites

The easy analysis of Trumponomics is “Thank God…we have a businessman and business like perspective and attitude running the Federal government…yahoo!”

As a businessman and entrepreneur NOTHING fills my heart with joy more than they idea that the U.S. Federal Government now APPRECIATES risk taking and business building more than creating an administrative state (to centrally manage away all of life’s risks and hazards). There is no question that in many industries and professions the gobbledygook of thousands and thousands of new regulations has cost $trillions in compliance costs and lost profits in the last 8 years.

Just the thought of having the government ON my side…saying we business people are GOOD people and not marauding profiteers taking advantage of labor and cutting corners in the race to ever more personal wealth and profits…makes me want to wake up tomorrow and start a new company…to grow my existing one faster…to take MORE risk!

But… my 23 years in DC and New York City taught me a few lifetimes about political realities vs. the dream of “the business of America is business” motto of Calvin Coolidge (our first businessman POTUS whom as you know presided over the formation and acceleration of the Great Recession!).

Most of the people who voted Trump as their economic and liberalism antidote/messiah believe like Trump that he has omniscient and unlimited power to “Make America Great Again.” But I can tell you from personal experience that there are 535 Congressmen (Senators and House Members) who believe that THEY should be POTUS and that keeping THEIR power is their highest priority.

The game-of-chicken clash of American political reality is now on in a big way. And the Trump Administration, for all its exciting business based cabinet members and $billionaires/centimillionaires and generally PRO BUSINESS can do attitude folks are for the first time running head long into the reality of getting their legislation actually voted on and approved.

Let me step back for a second and talk about Trump’s upcoming reality test and why I know it will have so much influence for our portfolio results this year and beyond.

First off we all know the markets hope that Trumpism can deliver a new economic reality show with 50% GDP growth to 3% (from 2%), corporate investment and profit growth to record levels, a $2 trillion repatriation of corporate cash from foreign lands and unleash the dormant part of the American labor pool to jack up growth to 3%+ rates.

When I look at the biggest obstacles to these hopes turning into reality…as see my longtime friend Steve Bannon. Steven K. as we call him has grown into a nationalist ideologue, and that I believe he and his "Bannonism" has brought a lot of risk into the new administration when it comes to LEGISLATING (as opposed to gaining headlines and selling “Make American Great Again” hats)

In short…if Trump wants to pass legislation that makes us investors all giddy and makes Americans re-allocate their retirement funds into stocks, he has GOT to end/subdue what I am calling “The Bannon Doctrine” and replace it with “How Do I Get 50 and 60 Senate Votes Doctrine.” Here is what I mean.

Trump’s early first month has been a combination of the insurgent politics of Steve Bannon and his Trumpian slashing at conventional GOP governance, the media, the Judiciary branch and more than a few incumbent Senators and Representatives. The paradox of course is that while the viral clikc bait of Bannonism dominates the media and public debate, the Trump Presidency will rise or fall only on whether HE can pass a conservative reform agenda through Congress.

Key Point: So far, the Trump-Bannon laser sabre show—aka the immigration limits and deportation ramp up, the broadsides against “globalism,” the rhetorical assaults on the media as “the enemy”—have produced the grand total of nothing other than an approval rating of 44% just five weeks into the job. That’s a modern low for a new President and a sign that the polarization strategy pressed by Mr. Bannon, his ally Stephen Miller and the Breitbart wing of the White House spent a LOT of Trumps already low political capital with ZERO return.44% also means he has a very low political ceiling going into the meat of his first year. "Not good."

Reality: The central problem is that the Bannon agenda and style can’t produce the results they promise and if unchecked will undermine the rest of Mr. Trump’s agenda. Tariffs that reduce trade won’t spur the growth Mr. Trump needs to lift incomes. A too-harsh crackdown on immigration will cause labor shortages that induce more U.S. production to move offshore, especially in agriculture. Immigration bans have already slowed foreign graduate student applications 35%. While Trump attacks on the media may satisfy Mr. Trump’s core supporters, they also create animosity and more political headwinds for his agenda from every side. Etc Etc Etc.

You might not see this as I do, but “here’s the deal”: At this point ALL the Trump-Bannon shit show has done from a legislative standpoint is build very real incentives for 2018 election vulnerable Republicans to distance themselves from the White House, as Senate Republicans did when they abandoned Labor nominee Andy Puzder. Last week Rep. Darrell Issa called for a special prosecutor to investigate the White House Russian connection. Mr. Issa barely won re-election in California last year and he can see the progressive mobilization coming right him in 2018.

Net result: The Bannon scorched earth style is uniting Democrats and starting to divide Republicans…especially purple/blue state Republican Senators. The GOP has only 52 seats in the Senate…if they lose just 3 of 33 GOP Senators in 2018 up for re-election…Trumponomics is dead in its tracks. My old buddy Steven K., like any devout ideologue, seems to really not give a shit. I guess I should not be surprised: Like it says on my whisky flask Steve gave me at this last Christmas party, Steve’s motto is “Honey Badger Don’t Give a Shit.”

By contrast and uber ironically for a populist firebrand, Mr. Trump’s successes have resulted from following the traditional Republican playbook. His Supreme Court nomination of Neil Gorsuch was led by Leonard Leo of the Federalist Society and has united Senate Republicans and the GOP grass-roots. His deregulatory agenda has united business and Trump partisans who disdain the nanny state. Deregulation plus the prospect of tax cuts have stirred investor animal spirits that have lifted the stock market. 

Reality II: The real action now shifts to Congress, and the irony is that Mr. Trump’s political fate will be determined by the same conservative Republican establishment that Mr. Bannon and his allies so vilify. I repeat: the success or failure to enact Trumponomics…the creed and ethos that investors and small business people are Jonesing about . . . depends on delivering the VOTES for government reform and economic growth he promised, and that requires a nearly united GOP in Congress.

Key Point:  Other than an over aggressive Fed (which Trump will have 2 appointees to chill out) the BIG market risks in 2017 are political not macroeconomic.Dude: Corporate tax reform must pass this year or the stock market tanks.

  • ObamaCare must be repealed and replaced in a way that doesn’t create horror stories of lost coverage…good luck with threading that needle.
  • The Senate needs to move as much other reform as possible that can win 60 votes (i.e, bills can’t be accomplished with 50-vote reconciliation.)
  • A military buildup has to get past the “no more deficits” GOP House Freedom Caucus.

This all requires political persuasion and coalition-building, not campaign-style name calling and polarization. My biggest worry: given the many factions and disparate interests that always exist in Congress, progress will really REQUIRE presidential direction and priority-setting that is so far nonexistent.Have you been able to see any direction and priority setting? So far all I have seen is “Shoot/Fire/Aim” tactics of a circular Gatling gun comprised of short range shotguns.

Final Point: The Republicans of course have an opening to press and pass their agenda, but success now depends on legislative results. If Mr. Trump wants to meet those expectations, he needs a LOT less Bannon disruption and lot more focus personal selling of HIS reform and growth agenda. You know…like being an effective President of the United States who knows without the Senate he is a dead man and acts like it.

The Two Big Market Bets of 2017

As we all know we have retail and institutional investors now making two opposite global bets. One is as stock markets hit a record high, investors are betting that the economic outlook for America and stock earnings are improving…a lot.

The second bet has attracted less attention. In the political prediction markets, investors are betting on Mr Trump’s downfall and institutional investors have been building cash and buying market hedges. This week Ladbrokes, for example, offered even odds that the president is either impeached or resigns before his first term ends; two months ago this probability was ranked at 3-1. Paddy Power has similar odds.

Bookmakers may not always prove the best forecasters. Still, the message is clear: concern is rising that chaos — if not crisis — will engulf the White House. As Raymond Thomas, head of US Special Operations Command, observed in a comment that broke with military protocol: “[The US] government continues to be in unbelievable turmoil. 

Why should you and I care?

Because the 10% Trump Rally started with bullish traders rotating to sectors that are more profitable under Trumponomics. It was extended in Jan/Feb 2017 from bullish retail investors reallocating their retirement funds toward stocks. Forward valuation for stocks now imply 24-30% growth in earnings in 2017…that would be a miracle even if corporate tax rates are cut to 20% for 2017 (avg. tax rate paid by U.S. public companies is just 23%) and cash repatriation costs are just 8.5% (as proposed).

Politically what is problematic for stocks in the short run is that the Trump honeymoon lasted about 30 days. His “Real and Replace” plan for the ACA aka Obamacare is now officially in big trouble with GOP Senators running for reelection in 2018...that the slim simple majority 52 seats slimmer or non-existent.  Genuine GOP Conservative Ideologues are choking on the $4.2 trillion budget submitted that comes in the face of lower corporate and personal income taxes with just an estimated $3.7 trillion of Federal revenue for fiscal 2017.

But the REAL X Factor is the Speaker of the House Paul Ryan’s 20% Border Import Tax that is needed to offset Trumps 20% corp. tax and 8.5% cash repatriation cuts.


Because there are NOT 60 votes in the Senate for Corporate and High Income personal tax cut. Therefore, the Trump Tax plan has to be passed with at least 50 votes for a “reconciliation bill” that has to be “revenue neutral” to be passed. Now Speaker Paul Ryan has won over an unlikely ally to salvage his controversial tax plan: My old buddy Steve Bannon. In a handful of White House meetings, Ryan reportedly found that Bannon was perhaps the most enthusiastic backer of the border-adjustment plan, according to a senior administration official and a person familiar with the sessions.

The bad news is my sources on the Hill say the border import tax is DOA.

The Border Tax

The proposed border-adjustment plan would tax U.S. companies’ domestic sales and imports at a new 20 percent rate, while exempting their exports. The change -- which would replace the existing 35 percent tax on companies’ global income -- would encourage companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and reverse the tide of corporate tax inversions, Ryan says.

The border-adjusted tax is estimated to raise more than $1 trillion over 10 years -- revenue that Ryan and other supporters say is needed to help pay for other tax cuts for U.S. businesses and individuals. AS I said, under the rules of reconciliation the eventual tax bill must either reduce the deficit or be revenue-neutral which would allow the Senate to bypass the usual 60-vote threshold and pass it with only GOP votes.

 Of course Democrats would likely filibuster the GOP’s broader tax plan if it were brought up as regular legislation..and it would die an ugly death AND that death could very well start the stock market 5-10% correction.Ryan has warned his Republican colleagues that if they don’t use border adjustment to raise revenue, there won’t be any room to implement their desired tax cuts under reconciliation.

Key Point: We are an investing newsletter not a political newsletter. BUT slashing the corporate and individual tax rates was of course a central campaign promise of Trump’s and a longtime dream for conservative lawmakers like Ryan. The expectation of a significant corporate tax cut is ALREADY priced into stocks. Trump is rapidly spending his “political capital” (i.e, what GOP voters will put up with in the 2018 election) walking back “Repeal and Replace”, the fiasco with the Muslim majority travel ban and his general non-presidential flip behavior and tweeting.

IF the Trump crew can’t get the Border Tax plan through the Senate, then the reality of how long it actually takes for “once a generation legislation” to get out of the House and and Senate will rear its ugly head. Trump’s “just wait till next monthism” from the mouth of the POTUS is starting to get old already.

AND THEN we say goodbye to the Trump Rally, ok?

The 3 Market Scenarios/Camps

One is that those betting markets are just wrong. After all the current dramas in Washington have erupted at a time when the new White House is operating with a skeleton staff, dominated by the self-described  “Leninist” Stephen Bannon, chief strategist, and Stephen Miller, a senior adviser. That will change: seasoned operators such as Gary Cohn, Steven Mnuchin, Rex Tillerson and Wilbur Ross have now been confirmed into their White House or cabinet roles. Some investors think — or hope — that Washington moves to a more predictable, business-like style of government, where the White House works with Congress to enact economic reform. Let’s call this the “The grownups are arriving—chill” camp.

The second camp can roughly be described as: the drama/chaos of today’s politics does not matter as much as the rise in “animal spirits”. In other words, the Trump Rally is not really about the president, but a wider hope about reflation and a return to normal equity allocations by U.S. investors. After all, the US economy is growing healthily, and corporate earnings rose about 7 per cent in the last quarter. Meanwhile, the tone of western government policy is — finally — shifting from monetary stimulus to structural reform and fiscal stimulus. There is no question that the positive economic potential ascribed to corporate tax cuts/deregulation/capital repatriation has ignited animal spirits that creates self-reinforcing growth irrespective of political shocks or tweets— or so the argument goes. As one investment manager told me “CEOs are investing more, hiring more and deploying capital…People are taking the risks they did not want to take two or three years ago.”

There is a third, more alarming, explanation: a bubble mentality rules. Investors have become dangerously complacent about the risks because after eight years of low interest rates they are desperate for higher returns. Some measures of US stock market valuation are not too concerning; .

But what worries me is it’s clear many investors seem impervious to negative news. Thus, the fear is that today’s optimism could implode if — or when — investors start paying attention to downside risks, be that a political shock, a delay in tax reform or later that signs that protectionism is hurting growth.

My investing hero Seth Klarman, of Baupost, a $20 billion private investment group, observed in a recent note: “Exuberant investors have focused on the potential benefits of simulative tax cuts, while mostly ignoring the risks from America-first protectionism and the erection of new trade barriers.”

Here are charts that make bulls skittish.

#1 The forward price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500, one of the classic metrics institutional investors use to value shares, has climbed to 17.7, the highest level since 2004 and above the indicator’s 20-year average. The forward earnings estimate upon which [the price-to-earnings ratio] is based is now 24 per cent HIGHER than the actual operating earnings per share achieved by S&P 500 companies last year.


Bulls say “the earnings recession is over!” But we had 7 consecutive quarters of negative YOY earnings over the last 2 years and stocks went UP 11%. That tells me investors did not care about valuations as long as the FED made cash worthless.

#2 A missing ingredient in much of the recovery has been strong sales growth, a point that cannot be glossed over with stock buybacks. Investors are now paying the most for each dollar S&P 500 companies generate in sales since 2000, according to Bloomberg.

#3 Since Trump’s “Terrific tax plan” announcement…companies with revenue less sensitive to economic growth, such as utilities and health care, have led the market for three weeks, a departure from the previous three months, when banks rallied the most.

This is the only time that the Dow has climbed to new highs over three weeks while cyclical shares trailed defensive stocks, according to data compiled by Sundial Capital Research Inc. that goes back to 1926.

#4 VIX call option trading is spiking…as we have asymmetric risk now as the reality of Trumponomics passing a GOP 52-seat Senate. Asymmetric as in WITH Trumponomics disappointment comes big unwind of the new retail aka skittish money in the market since November…so the good news of Trumponomics is mostly priced in already.

#5 Meanwhile, demand for hedges is rising even as the CBOE Volatility Index sits about 25 percent below its five-year average. Large speculators have raised net positions in VIX futures from a record low, pushing them up in three of the past four weeks, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

#6 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN, a security that tends to rise when the market falls. While the S&P 500 hovers near its all-time high and the note has lost money every year since its inception in 2009, shares outstanding in the ETN have increased in each of the last three weeks, reaching a record. Short interest started to fall after climbing to a 10-month high earlier this month, according to data compiled by IHS Markit.

#7  Market leadership has shifted to defensive shares as Treasury yields decline signals that investors are preparing for trouble, according to my long time pal Tony Dwyer, a strategist at Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. “Sector action not fitting upbeat economic narrative,” he wrote in a Feb. 26 note . “The recent sector performance and drop in U.S. Treasury yields suggest a period that should bring more volatility and minor turbulence.”

#8 The Trump Rally has been sparked by RETAIL investors reallocating their mutual fund money to low cost INDEX funds…to a tune of $83 billion so far this year. Once those allocations are done…and by end of Febuary they mostly are…NOW we are dependent on TIMELY delivery of Trumponomics.

Key Point: An $83 billion surge of cash into passive strategies so far this year amid a $15 billion withdrawal from actively managed funds is evidence that institutional traders have backed away.

Indeed reports today show nstitutional investors from risk-parity to mutual fund managers and hedge funds have decreased their exposure to the equities 29% in the last 20 days -- another sign that the flows to passive strategies are likely dominated by retail investors.

Finally: The FED Has a Yellow Light for March 15 rate hike

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said he expects an interest-rate increase to receive “serious consideration” when he and other U.S. central bankers gather March 14-15 in Washington. “We’re very close to achieving our dual mandate goals. Yet monetary policy essentially still has the pedal to the metal,” Williams said in a recent speech. “We need to gradually ease our foot off the gas in order to avoid a ‘too hot’ economy that in the end isn’t sustainable.”

Result: The probability of a March hike implied by pricing in federal funds futures contracts rose to 52 percent Tuesday from 34 percent less than a week ago. If we get >70% that is FULL green light for 3 rate hikes for 2017.

Action to Take: Let's get defensive here. We have 12% gains in the first 60 days…that is 72% annualized gain and that is NOT sustainable unless EVERY market friendly Trumponomics law is passed by June/July at the latest.Congress does NOT work that fast on “generational legislation” unless the POTUS has a simple majority in the House and Super Majority (60 votes) in the Senate.

The Good News for 2017

My old friend in stock market punditry CFRA’s Sam Stovall says he’s looking for a long-overdue “digestion of gains,” though he adds the pause will not likely result in the end of this bull market. “If you need additional encouragement that a bear market is not just around the corner, history again may offer some more virtual Valium,” says Stovall.

Since 1945, there have been 27 years when the S&P has achieved gains in January and February. The stock index then finished up for the year (on a total-return basis) in every one those years, according to Stovall. That’s going 27 for 27, or batting a thousand.

The average rise in those years was 24%, as shown in his chart below, and the gauge was up further in the remaining 10 months 25 of 27 times.


As Stovall puts it, the first two months can “offer a clue that investors believe that good things still lie ahead in the next few quarters.”

The Non-Goldilocks Macroeconomic Case for 2017

I have followed my old colleague David Rosenberg closely since he and I got bullish on stocks on the same day: March 6th 2009. Here is a summary of what he sees in the U.S. economy this year—he sees a lot of the warning signals I do (which makes him brilliant of course).

David Rosenberg: We’re going to average close to 2% real GDP growth this year, well below consensus. I don’t see the breakout that a lot of other economists are talking about.

What indicators are you looking at?

I don’t see what the catalyst is going to be for the economy to break out to the upside. The temptation is to believe that we are going to be getting tax relief and deregulation and capital repatriation, but there are going to be a whole bunch of other offsets in the form of potential tariffs and trade protectionism. The elephant in the room is the Fed, which is tightening policy. The dollar is more likely to firm than to weaken, notwithstanding how overcrowded that trade may be. Financial conditions have already been tightening, and will continue to tighten. We are at peak autos, peak housing.

On the positive side, capital spending will do better than last year. I’m not calling for an outright recession for this year. But it is a real leap of faith to believe that the policies coming out of Washington are going to spin the dial toward 3% or 4% GDP growth. It is very difficult when you look at Boomer demographics and multifactor lack of productivity growth to build a view that we are going to do much better than 2%, even with the potential for fiscal stimulus (note: GDP is simply a measurement of output - imports + productivity growth).  I see more downside than upside to that number. Reality is there are some very real structural impediments in front of the U.S. economy in 2017 that transcend excess regulations.

The aging of the baby boomers?

It doesn’t get a lot of press, but it is extremely important. Last year, the first of the boomers turned 70, and there will be 1½ million boomers turning 70 in each of the next 15 years. That is where the wealth and power still reside. But the other part is that some of the data shows that half of the boomers now heading into retirement have savings of $100,000 or less. In this segment of the population we have a savings crisis. A lot of these people have taken on student debt to help their children and grandchildren.

How will limiting trade affect the economy?

The most important words in the inauguration speech were “protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.” The border-adjustment tax was the answer to corporate-tax reform; it’s basically trade protectionism. If enacted it inevitably leads to a trade war with our largest trade partners.

Alternative reality?

It is called the Trump Rally for a reason and if you take a look at the sectors that have outperformed, they are areas that would benefit from deregulation, repatriation, and tax reform. Based on where we are right now there is more room for disappointment than for any upside surprises.


The markets have given the administration the benefit of the doubt. The question is, how much patience does Mr. Market have, because it is very clear that there is no agreement on the border-adjustment tax, there is no broad agreement among House Republicans about whether tax reform should be revenue neutral, and if not, how far would we drive the deficit up--$500 billion…$600 billion?

In short, all of the good stuff has to happen, none of the bad stuff has to happen. And it all has to happen this year. Sentiment is extremely bullish and I am a notorious contrarian. But the technicals have been positive and the market is being driven by momentum. It is not always about the fundamentals. When you get three things together—a sub-11 VIX [the CBOE Volatility Index], an 18 forward multiple, and 60%-plus bulls in Investors Intelligence— and you look at the history, you’ll see that upside to this market is extremely limited.

In addition volatility and uncertainty are underpriced. There will be better buying opportunities this year. Are we going into a bear market? No. We will have a flattish year, with a tremendous amount of volatility. Fiscal policy is as tapped out as monetary policy is.

How so?

Once you breach a 60% government debt to GDP ratio, the impact of fiscal stimulus subsides dramatically. We have net debt to GDP of 80%, and the deficit is 3% of GDP. This is the highest debt ratio we’ve had in a peacetime economy.Part of that deficit and debt is going to constrain the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Why? Because when you cross a 60-80% of GDP debt ratio, much of the stimulus that goes into the system is saved and not spent. We’re not cutting spending and it’s next to impossible because 84% of Federal spending is in entitlements/military/interest and there is nothing in the campaign proposals about entitlements, which are a ticking time bomb. If anything, spending is going up and taxes supposedly are coming down.

What’s your expectation on interest rates?

The problem is we’re loaded up with so much debt and we never did go through a deleveraging cycle other than in mortgage debt at the household level. The big constraint on interest rates is that when they rise, the servicing cost becomes so burdensome that whatever interest-rate increases we get are hoisted on their own petard (i.e, they blow up the economy) and the rates will come right back down. We’ve been as high as 4%, we’ve been as low as 1.4% and we’re still at the low end of that range.

People will say the stock market is telling you that you’re wrong on your below-consensus growth view. I will retort “What is the bond market suggesting about my forecast?” because the bond market usually gets it right. We haven’t even come close to touching 3%, and now we’re basically below 2½. If we were ever to back up to 2¾ or 3% on the 10-year note there will be some wonderful buying opportunities.

What about the Fed? It’s talking about three moves this year.

The Fed has already told us that three is a virtual guarantee unless something goes awry. If anything happens that causes the Fed to raise its GDP profile for the second half of the year, it will raise rates even more.

Final Thought

My team and I have worked hard to get a handle on this historic melt-up for the stock market. We LOVE the profits of course...but as I hope you understand by now the underpinnings of the historic climb are primarily emotional and based on all the good stuff happening and none of the bad stuff happening. You and I know that rarely happens in any life endeavor.

We have gone way past our every 6 month bull market corrections which are important for the health of old and aging bull market. MUCH of Trumponomics will HELP the economy...the question as we have discussed is the timing and what legislation gets killed or maimed in the Congressional fight. 

I'm not a soothsayer...I am macroeconomic forecaster and microeconomic analyst. But every once in a while being an political analyst is MORE important than macro or micro.

I promise we will protect our 100-200-300% profit positions...most are in capital gains range by March 15-25. 

Let's be calm, let's be cool, lets not react to day-to-day political shrapnel.

Let's hope for the best, but plan for the worst...that is how we have averaged 47% annual gains since 2013 ok?


- Toby

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