MRNA Update & Option Swing Trade

Dear Transformity Ultra Growth Investor,

Action to Take:

Buy to Open MRNA Jan 29 2021 140.0 Call Limit 4


Just got off texting with our MRNA inside source who told us that MRNA was the leader in the vaccine race in May 2020 and got us into 2 highly profitable trades on MRNA stock--$32-$58 and $52 to $102.

Now same MRNA insider reports some amazing details:

MRNA Insider: So because of superior delivery logistics, Moderna has become the preferred vaccine. It looks like Pfizer will do 50,000,000 more for the USA. But Moderna will do the rest. Projected production over 1,000,000,000. Anyplace outside a large urban area. So MOST of the planet is getting the Moderna vaccine.

The Sinovax vaccine is a failure outside China. They touted 99% is more like 50%.

Me: Wow— and we can assume that this SARS-type virus will have annual mutations like the flu virus?
MRNA Insider: Betting on it will --and the accuracy of the MRNA vaccine will be much higher. With flu you have to grow the virus, kill it then manufacture the vaccine. So there is about 9 month lag time.

And as you see that is a lifetime for a virus to mutate. So the best efficacy in fluvax is around 50% so it only attenuates the course. Moderna is a manufactured vaccine that can be modified in a day. The FDA is going to have to modify its review process for the 21st century--and they already have.

Me: My theory on FDA is like many aspects of life that got 5-10 years of change pulled forward in 90 days--new FDA admin will get the riot act from Biden crew if they delay MRNA on anything--especially since the US Govt. will be into them for $10B+ just in current vaccines ... which shot have you taken and why?

MRNA Insider (who helped develop MRNA vaccine and worked on Operation Warp Speed): Bingo—take the Moderna Shot—J&J is one dose but more than a few months away.

Me: So MRNA makes a billion doses--are there cost efficiencies at that level? I assume the price per dose is fixed but the gross margin % to MRNA increases when fixed production costs are spread over one billion doses--right?

MRNA Insider: This is in your zone. Moderna has no manufacturing experience. So efficiency is increasing. The placing into vials is a subcontractor around Boston, don’t remember who. They are making around 800k a day and are licensing to another factory around Boston and another around Lucerne Switzerland. Which will increase production to 2,400,000 a day.

Thanks...I think the answer is at the price levels they are charging, the gross margin is sick (pardon the pun).

Moderna Vaccine Pricing: $10 to $50 per dose. Free for early recipients.

Like Pfizer, Moderna’s first vaccine batch will be covered by government contracts. But pricing will depend on the amount ordered. On Sunday, Moderna CEO Stephen Bancel told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that the company will charge governments between $10 and $50 per dose.

The U.S. has secured 100 million doses for Americans at the cost of $15 per dose. (Moderna received nearly $1 billion of U.S. government funding in developing the vaccine.) The European Union is reportedly negotiating a deal to keep the per-dose price under $25.

This vaccine will likely be pricier for retail customers after government programs phase-out. In its most recent quarterly earnings, Moderna said the vaccine will be sold for $32 to $37 per dose for some customers.

Let 'er rip--short term trade--ONLY risk what you don't mind losing!










Action to Take: BUY EOS Enterprises EOSE Up to $30 with $85 Target end of 2022

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Source: EOSE Investor Presentation October 2020

EOSE’s battery technology is not suitable for mobile applications (EVs) but the proprietary Zinc Battery has multiple advantages over Li-ion when it comes to grid storage. Li-ion is currently over 90% of the storage market today, but EOSE WILL gain market share big time as presold production comes online for their current generation and next-generation platform to be introduced in 2021.

Here are a few articles about Zinc batteries over taking Li-ion
Meets Zinc, the Cheap Metal Gunning for Lithium Battery Crown - Bloomberg
California Sees Zinc As Likely Successor To Lithium-Ion In Energy Storage - Forbes

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Source: EOSE Investor Presentation October 2020

EOSE expects to generate $50M this year, growing to over $700M by 2023. More importantly, this forecast is driven PURELY by their current orders backlog and pipeline that is over ~15 GWh. Also, the company is now very well-capitalized and can put the manufacturing capacity in place to fulfill demand. Obviously, there are many risks to EOSE achieving this forecast, but given the demand backdrop I think it is at least achievable.

Valuation: If we give EOSE the historic FCEL revenue multiple of 3.8x on the 2023 estimate, the stock is worth $52.00.
If I give EOSE the 23x multiple FCEL is currently trading on the consensus revenue estimate for 2023 ($152 million) the stock is worth $252.00!

Our EOSE $85 price target is simply 6X multiple on 2023 sales at a 25% discount.

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Updates/AlertsTobin Smith