Victory Over Coronavirus Day!
Hey Subscriber,
WOW! Seeing how we are in the business of measuring the magnitude and longevity of secular transformational events at the micro (read company level), sector/space level, and macro (read macroeconomy) level in order to beat the overall market returns by 5-7X per year (which I am very proud to say we are now at a 77% annual average return since 2013 or 11X better returns than the SP 500) I am thrilled to report we just had a global megaton macroeconomic transformation (90% effective coronavirus vaccine) explode today!.
As of 4:30 MTN time November 9th, 2020 we are NOW investing in a return to a normal world where we have
1) gridlocked Federal Government (great for stocks assuming a 49-51 Senate which is NOT, of course, assured until GA votes in early January)
2) negative real interest rates guaranteed till 2023
3) A 90% effective vaccine (created in record time with the amazing MRNA technology)
4) a science-based approach to slowing the third wave of coronavirus vs. "it is what it is"
5) A much more disciplined approach to global trade alliances (vs. job costing-not-creating tariffs)
6) 10-year Interest rates RISING (faster economic recovery means SELL the safety of bonds and less chance of FED resuming Quantitative Easing aka QE which had them buying 10-year Treasuries)
7) $Dollar dropping in value (the safe-haven trade getting unwound)
8) $Gold and Bitcoin ("the new digital gold") dropping--see dollar dropping
To put it mildly, in the last 72 hours the stock market investing climate has changed rather dramatically.
For one thing, the mega tech/work from home/school from home safety trade now needs to come back to earth.
As I have stated many times, YES digital enterprise transformation adoption had 3-5 years of adoption in 3-5 months BUT the stocks got 3-5 times higher revenue multiples re-rating added to their value, too.
IF YOU ARE LONG the WFH poster children ZM, DOCU, NFLX, CHGG, LRN, FVRR, PTON, SNOW GOLD, Bonds, SHOP, TWOU, STMP, TDOC, VEEV time to take profits or sell call options to reduce your risk as these are great companies valued for perfection and another year of lockdowns and work from home/school from home.
Action to Take: SELL TQQQ and take a small profit.
Action to Take: BUY the DEEP Discount High-income energy Names & mREITS NOW (which rise in value when the 10-interest rates rise which slow mortgage refinancing)
| Symbol | Ex-Div Date | Payout Date | Yield TTM | Yield FWD | 4Y Avg Yield | Div Rate TTM | Div Rate FWD | Payout Ratio | 4Y Avg Payout | Div Growth 3Y | Div Growth 5Y | Years of Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMP | 11/12/2020 | 11/27/2020 | 23.33% | 23.33% | 11.78% | $2.16 | $2.16 | 89.21% | 68.39% | - | - | 2 Years |
| AM | 10/28/2020 | 11/12/2020 | 22.32% | 22.32% | 5.95% | $1.23 | $1.23 | 98.53% | 107.42% | - | - | 3 Years |
| USAC | 10/23/2020 | 11/6/2020 | 21.26% | 21.26% | 15.31% | $2.10 | $2.10 | - | -3796.72% | 0.00% | 1.23% | 0 Year |
| AMZA | 10/20/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 34.36% | 20.70% | 248.95% | $4.78 | $2.88 | - | - | -24.93% | - | 0 Year |
| 0 Year | ||||||||||||
| GLOP | 8/14/2020 | 8/20/2020 | 43.73% | 16.08% | 17.91% | $1.36 | $0.50 | 37.16% | 104.52% | 4.79% | - | 0 Year |
| ENBL | 11/16/2020 | 11/24/2020 | 18.99% | 15.13% | 13.14% | $0.83 | $0.66 | 1227.68% | 146.55% | 0.65% | - | 0 Year |
| 0 Year |
We are adding OMP Oasis Midstream with its 23.33% yield secured (it was cut 73% earlier) BUY UNDER $10.50 (you must buy shares tomorrow to get the .54 quarterly dividend as the date of record is 11/13!) and GLOP GasLog Partners under $4 with a secure 16% yield (they also chopped their distributions 70% ish as they deleverage).
GLOP target? Over the next 24 months (with overseas natural gas consumption returning to pre-pandemic norms and debt restructuring) we can see GLOP trading at $18-$22 as it traded at $25 for years before the pandemic.
USAC--under $11 still pumping out $2.10 annual dividend!!!
AM--<$7
AMZA <$16.50
ENBL<$5
REML< $4.75
PFFA < $21
DCP < $15.50
NLY HOLD
NRZ < $8.50
Time Again for USOI Under $4.50
Our old friend USOI is back in its dividend growing period of November through June.
We estimate a 20% appreciation over the next 7 months as oil consumption and prices rise with widespread consumption growth beginning with vaccination and about 40% return from dividends!
SELL LSCG AUVI USLG
Our thesis on these stocks was a 50-60% effectiveness rate on a fast developed vaccine would require significant ongoing Far-UV virus sanitation installations at the retail and public spaces that could not afford to NOT have this sanitation equipment. While I am sure that many indoor spaces will adopt and install this equipment, the 90% effective vaccine rate changes the urgency from MUST HAVE to really nice to have.
We will keep monitoring the space as even if Far-UV sanitation equipment goes primarily in the ventilation equipment, its still a $multi-billion TAM worldwide.
They are obviously very volatile stocks--which is why we usually stay away from microcaps.
OPTI? The thesis still stands--as the news flow of delivery of PPE is reported, the revaluation of Optec International will have to be treated. And PPE is NOT GOING away--we have another 9-12 months of covid contamination and protective gear in short supply. And then we will surely get mandated REsupply of PPE around the world.
We will NEVER BE CAUGHT unprepared for the NEXT lethal pathogen--of that I am sure.
NEW updated Ultra Income and Ultra Growth update ASAP--we are totally slammed with getting into the opportunities of a 90% covid free world starting in 2022!
November newsletter getting TOTALLY CHANGED to reflect VOV Day and world-class companies selling for pennies on the dollar.
NOTE to SuperSPAC PRO Trader Subscribers: We are officially launching SuperSPAC PRO Trader on November 16 and the Discord Trading Room for SuperSPAC PRO Trader on Nov. 18.
PS: Here is our SuperSPAC SPAC Playbook Just Published! Click Here!