ONCE Again--Hedging QQQ Technical Breakdown with TQQQ Put Options

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Dear Subscriber,


As we said on March 3, "The air has been seeping out of the high secular growth super-high valuation QQQ stocks with a rapid increase in the 2yr-10yr rate differential and key QQQ technical support is broken down."

March 18--check.

We also said that "as in any correction, there are VERY SHARP sharp snapback rip your face off short-covering rallies."

78-95 on the TQQQ in 5 trading days...check.

Key point: when the

1) snapback rallies fail
2) The leading QQQ and Nasdaq stocks (Apple, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Microsoft, Adobe are flat to down 10%)

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and the 2020 momentum tech names are in a 20%+ down BEAR MARKET like Tesla, ARKK ETFs, Top 20 Cloud names etc.

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and tech and momentum stocks are rolling over, the technicals say the path of least resistance is 10% lower from here.

And with "Value Stocks the New Momentum Plays" aka the black box momentum factor algorithm traders could accentuate and accelerate the denouement of the 2020 leadership.

Now what is of course strange into the post pandemic "Travellgeddon" 7% GDP rush to live our lives as we did in 2019 is how global oil prices suddenly got hit with China buying hundreds of millions of barrels of ALL the Iranian oil sitting in storage and on tankers in the last week which has temporarily hit global oil prices too.

This move looks temporary until China has used up all the Iranian oil since China IS the world's largest oil importer.

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Action to Take: TAKE PROFITS on USOI oil ETF--we are in around $4.10-$4.20 and oil looks like it has a way to fall. We will reload when technical support holds.

As always--this is YOUR call--feel free to ride this out if you don't want to bother with hedging--but we use the TQQQ put options to hedge our portfolios and I always find that I SLEEP better at night knowing the small amount of cost (less than 1.25% of our portfolio) ensures that should a catastrophe hit, our prodigious profits on the last 12 months are safe.

Action to Take: BUY TQQQ Apr 16, 2021 75 Put Option $5 or BETTER

Bid Ask B/A Size Volume Open Interest
4.15 4.40 214X105 767 2155


Here is the chart from our LAST hedge trade--as you can see, the first leg of the tech/momentum 2020 sell-off by March 3 was MUCH farther along...

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Toby