Your 2025 Ultra Growth Trumponomics Playbook & Top 10 Super Sectors sent
Deep Research + Patience + Transformational Change
= 810% Outperformance vs. SP 500 Index
Hey Reader,
The time has come to update and upgrade our HIGHLY profitable TR Ultra Growth Tech Stack to include the Top 10 transformational waves/sectors of Trumponomics for 2025-2026.
One reason is simple: history tells us that the first two years of a transformative US election are the most profitable for equity investors. And let's face it--if just half of Trumponomics gets enacted, our Top 10 Trumponomics Sectors/Stocks will continue our track record of CRUSHING the S&P 500 index by 3X-5X as these MASSIVE changes in corporate taxation, corporate regulation, FTC regulation of corporate merger & acquisitions and cryptocurrency regulations.
And boy, are the Biden appointee heads rolling! Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, is gone. Look for much laxer crypto currency regulation. Lina Kahn, Chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), has crashed dozens of M&A transactions in the last four years. That reign of M&A terror and antitrust cases against Big Tech will soon be gone, too.
At the same time, 20%+ tariffs promised on Chinese/EU/Mexico and even Canadian goods imported into the United States will create many winners and losers IF the threat of these onerous tariffs (i.e., negotiation leverage) are actually enacted by the 2025-2027 GOP-controlled Senate/House and Executive Branches (my strong guess is that China is the main target of a real tariff war and the EU/Mexico/Canada tariff threats are talked back from the ledge.)
I hope cooler heads prevail in the new Federal government. Let us not forget the Depression of the 1930s was self-inflicted:
The stock market crash in October 1929 was self-inflicted, as massive stock speculation and margin calls got out of control.
Then, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, enacted in June 1930, raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to historically high levels. Then, between 1930 and 1933--nearly 9,000 banks failed and wiped out millions of Americans
The goal was to protect American farmers and manufacturers from foreign competition during an economic downturn, but it backfired. Farm exports dropped 50%+, farmers were already heavily in debt, and they folded by the thousands.
Impact of the Tariffs
Retaliation from Other Countries:
European countries and other trading partners retaliated by imposing their own tariffs on American goods.
This led to a significant decline in international trade, worsening the economic downturn globally.
U.S. exports fell by about 61% between 1929 and 1933.
Global Economic Contraction:
The tariffs disrupted global supply chains and trade relationships, which were already fragile after World War I.
Countries reliant on trade with the U.S. suffered, deepening the global economic crisis.
Yes, in 2025, the Federal Reserve also learned lessons from the Great Depression—in the early 1930s, the Fed allowed the money supply to massively shrink, which caused record price DEFLATION. However, the US federal government already has $36 trillion in debt, and adding $trillions in newly printed dollars would reignite inflation and devalue the US dollar (which then increases the cost of imports on top of tariffs).
Thus--you and I should NOT Expect Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 2.0. My 25 years in DC and knowing many Republicans in the Senate and House I am sure SOMEBODY will sit Mr. Trump down and gently "share" with him the reality of Tariff Wars--as in NO ONE wins.
The 2025 Game Plan--CRUSH the SP 500 Again for the 8th Year in a Row!
I have re-organized our Transformational Secular Inflection stock groups ("Halos" for short) into 10 major themes-- just to organize the fact that the multi-$trillions of transformational secular financial/economic + regulatory changes coming to the US Economy via Trumpism with control of the US HOR and Senate is the largest most economically power transformative inflection I have ever lived through.
The primary stock and ETF beneficiary sectors are
1) The Trumponomics + Musk Halo ($TSLA $TSLL $OKLO $COIN $MSTR $HOOD $MARA $PLTR )
2) The AI Data Center Server Tech Stack Halo (Updating our Buy Unders for later this week)
3) The AI Data Center Clean Power + Nat Gas Pipelines+ Nuclear Power Grid Halo ($CORZ $SO $OKLO $SMR $HIVE $HUT $IREN $BTBT $VST $NNE $CEG $NEE $PWR $LEU $LTBR $TT $EXC $ETN $POWL $MPLX $AMZA $MLPA $AMLP )
4) The Quantum Computing + EVTOL Halo ($RGTI $RGTIW $QBTS $EVTL $JOBY $JOBY-WT $ACHR $ACHR-WT $QUBT)
5) Enterprise AI + Agents Software Revolution Halo (finishing picks early this week--$NOW for sure
6) Top 25% Households by Income/Wealth Halo (top 25% of US Households spend 70%+ of discretionary/non-essential luxury goods/entertainment/dining out/travel + own 65% of total household wealth ). Viking Cruise Lines $VIK $CAVA Sphere Entertainment SPHR/Schwab/Morgan Stanley+Schwab (wealth management)
7) The 2025-2029 IPO/Merger& Acquisition/Investment Banking Halo ( Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Jeffries)
8) The 2025-2029 Federal Deregulation Wave Halo (Highly regulated industry beneficiaries including crypto/banking/conglomerates/Mag 7)
9) Record Total Budget Deficit/Federal Debt (hold Gold via $GDXU, $MSTX/2x leveraged Microstrategy ETS/ 2X BTC ETF $BITX)
10) Top Digital Consumer Spending & Investing Platformity Dominators (like Toast $TOST/Affirm AFRM/Applovin $APP Interactive Brokers $IBKR Robinhood $HOOD $SOFI and $CME)
Note: While we in the All-Access trading room HAVE BEEN making some great returns on the risk-on Trumpmania that followed the election, our trades on Bitcoin/Microstrategy/Tesla/Bitcoin Miners/COIN/IREN/CORZ/SMR Small Nuclear Reactors were TRADES simply riding the Post Trump Election FOMO explosion—especially in Bitcoin and related traded crypto funds run by Grayscale funds.
My Plea for Your RATIONALE Exuberance--We Need to BUILD these New Portfolios on PULL BACKS and NOT CHASE FOMO!
The AI trade is now morphing into the Enterprise Software "AI Agents" trade, and taking over AI Tech Stack stock reigns the AI Tech Stack. See Dell and HPE results and of course SMCI--and aren't you glad we SOLD SMCI (and took 300% profits out on the way up)?
The Trump election victory and then the GOP's House/Senate conquest obviously unleashed the "animal spirits" John Keynes referred to 80 years ago for a straight-up stock market (or BTC, for that matter).
But Tobin's Law of Financial Gravity still holds: "When any exchange-traded asset or asset class goes up like a ballistic missile (i.e., driven by retail FOMO trading and momentum algorithm trading machines), at SOME point that move peaks/ retreats 10-20% on early players' profit taking. Thus, the ballistic move runs out of new market orders and moves down to the key support of fundamental buyers who see value on the pullback."
THUS--my experience in melt-up markets over the last 30 years (starting with the 1995 Dot Com Mania) is
1) throw some money at them via selling call options/selling put options when the FOMO takes off as a TRADE
2) use 12-15% automatic sell stops until the RSI goes above 70, then
3) take the auto sell stops to 5-7% under the closing price when RSI breaks 70 and
4) sell the trade when the 70 RSI has been broken and
5) IF the AI investment theme is TRULY a major secular transformational change event
6) build a long-term position at the 50-day MA.
The Power Grid/AI Data Center builders and SMR nuke plays have secular winds behind them for the next 6-8 years … The quantum Computing technology leaders now have a bid (including IBM) as quantum computing begins to be a viable solution for many applications, starting with AI and enterprise cybersecurity.
Quantum computing holds the potential to revolutionize several fields due to its ability to process complex calculations much faster than classical computers. Here are some of the best applications for quantum computing:
Cryptography: Quantum computers can break widely used cryptographic systems, such as RSA, by efficiently solving problems like integer factorization. They also enable the development of new cryptographic protocols, like quantum key distribution, which are theoretically secure against quantum attacks.
Optimization Problems: Many industries face complex optimization problems, such as logistics, supply chain management, and financial modeling. Quantum computing can provide more efficient solutions to these problems by exploring multiple possibilities simultaneously.
Drug Discovery and Material Science: Quantum computers can simulate molecular interactions at a quantum level, which is hugely challenging for classical computers. (Our Verseon has already been the only drug platform developing new drug molecules at the atom/quantum level for 4 years!). This capability will accelerate drug discovery and the development of new materials by providing deeper insights into chemical reactions and properties.
Machine Learning: Quantum machine learning algorithms can process and analyze large datasets more efficiently, potentially leading to faster training times and improved pattern recognition capabilities.
Financial Modeling: Quantum computing can enhance financial modeling by providing faster and more accurate simulations of markets, risk assessments, and portfolio optimization.
Weather Forecasting and Climate Modeling: The complex models used for weather prediction and climate change simulations can benefit from quantum computing's ability to handle vast amounts of data and complex calculations.
Artificial Intelligence: Quantum computing can improve AI by accelerating the processing of large datasets and enhancing the performance of algorithms, potentially leading to more advanced AI systems.
Search Problems: Quantum computers can solve certain search problems more efficiently than classical computers, such as Grover's algorithm, which provides a quadratic speedup for unstructured search problems.
These applications are still in the early stages of development, as practical quantum computing is still in its infancy. However, as the technology matures, these areas are expected to see significant advancements.
OK, now let’s talk Bitcoinonomics.
THIS IS a VERY solid analysis of how the $MSTR Bitcoin reserve policy should drive other big TECH companies to parrot the move with some of their $billions in cash--MUST READ! https://seekingalpha.com/article/4735428-how-game-theory-and-a-pro-crypto-shift-could-spark-global-bitcoin-adoption-reaffirming-buy-rating-on-btc-and-mstr
With the end of the SEC/FTC attacks on Bitcoin and other Solana-based cryptocurrencies in particular--and POTUS Trump and his sidekick Elon Musk leading the cheerleading for Bitcoin as a "Treasury Reserve currency" (not to mention the 18 years of deficit spending in the last 3 years) to total 120% roughly of our national GDP--the case that Bitcoin advocates (which has NOT been me till Trumponomics became the law of the land) point out that the Fed/Treasury has to devalue the US dollar via printing more and more $trillions to plug the hole is deficit spending--verses the FIXED finite amount of bitcoin that can EVER be created suddenly has REAL intrinsic value.
As the SEC lawsuits imposing Wall Street rules on crypto fade away, cryptocurrencies in the United States are entering a new world.
Final Thought on Generative AI Realities
As we IMPATIENTLY wait for Verses AI to any day now announce the results of the "Atari Test" on its distributed artificial general intelligence and its Genius Enterprise AI platform with its massively lower energy requirements/PC vs. Data Center structure and AGENT-based functionality for "inference" based computing (i.e., improving AI-based corporate, governmental and Smart City operations and decisions in 24/7 real-time), my old venture capitalist friend from Silicon Valley during the Dot Com mania Roger McNamee very well points out in a recent article the limitations of the data center based generative AI.
"@GoldmanSachs focuses on capex for compute and data centers. The numbers are >>$100B so far, rising by >$10B a month. Key spenders—MSFT, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle—have tons of cash and dominate the S&P500.
If they are wrong (on LLM-based Generative AI) … the market will suffer. Goldman is not the first Wall St firm to raise concern. Barclay’s was. The VC firm @sequoia also issued a report on capex in AI, saying that industry needs $600 million in annual revenue to justify the existing investment in compute and cloud.
I pay attention when firms like @sequoia and @GoldmanSachs tell me there is a bubble. When their argument is based narrowly — on discretionary capex — alarm bells go off.
Why? Because there are many other reasons why people think generative AI will disappoint.
AI issue #1: power. Generative AI is breaking the power grid nationally and accelerating climate change. This would be a problem if AI created big value, but it doesn’t. MSFT and GOOG promised to be carbon neutral in 2030. MSFT carbon is up 30% in 2 years; Google 45% in 5 years.
AI issue #2: water. Water is required for semiconductor fabs, training data sets, and cloud services. One report suggests that 1/2 liter of water is ruined every time you query a chatbot. Many fabs and data centers are in desert areas.
AI issue #3: copyright. GenAI companies have stolen huge amounts of copyrighted content to train LLMs. Their goal is take away jobs from the people whose content they stole. There are several problems with this.
AI issue #4: privacy. When we started using cloud services for email, word processing, spreadsheets, storage, social media, etc., we did not permit our content to be used to train LLMs. And yet, that is what is happening.
AI issue #6: security (esp. National Security). Big Tech LLMs create vulnerabilities for anyone who uses them. It is almost certain that agents of foreign powers have infiltrated AI vendors. There is a huge asymmetry of risk relative to China.
AI issue #7: disinformation. LLMs were designed to pass Turing test by fooling humans. Optimized for plausibility, not factuality. The huge volume of Gen AI nonsense is a huge threat to search and to quality of online information.
Net Net? Today, disinformation is the most valuable case of LLMs.
AI issue #8, part 1: toxic use cases. The four best use cases so far are disinfo, deepfake porn, spam, and plagiarism. Positive use cases are still primarily speculative. One that looked good — programming — has turned out to be a mixed bag, at best.
AI Issue #8, part 2. The early efforts to apply generative AI to web development have been mostly disappointing.
AI Issue #8, part 3. Thanks to the GenAI mania, people are trying to apply LLMs to everything, including a wide range of use cases that are guaranteed to fail. People will be harmed, some in ways from which they will not recover. Safety should be a priority.
Conclusion: LLMs are NOT intelligent. They use statistics to find the most suitable next word, paragraph, or image. They only know their training set. What they do best is to BS you.
More evidence supports the view that LLMs are more likely a tech scam than the Next Big Thing. Beware.
Coda: BigTech dominates the S&P500. Big Tech will not go broke when the AI bubble bursts, but all the forecasts will collapse, taking stock prices with them.
There is no way to know when the bubble will burst, but it will happen. Be prepared.”
On that cheery note, I offer the following aside: Roger is obviously detailing the worst-case scenario for LLM generative AI. Just like the Dot Com explosion in the mid-90s, there are actual AI use cases and new generative AI start-ups with valuable functionality that will come to market that neither Roger nor I can foresee.
When Verses AI's Genius Platform AGI results are announced (which, yes, BETTER HAPPEN VERY SOON), it WILL BE a game changer and answer many of Roger's negative issues with LLM generative AI.
But new AI technologies and use cases ARE literally springing up virtually every WEEK around the world. Take Karol Hausman’s goal, which is to create a universal AI that can power any robot. “We want to build a model that can control any robot to do any task, including all the robots that exist today, and robots that haven’t even been developed yet,” he says.
Hausman’s San Francisco-based startup, Physical Intelligence, is less than a year old. Hausman himself used to work at Google’s AI wing, DeepMind. His company starts with a variant of the same large language model you use when you access ChatGPT. The newest of these language models also incorporates and can work with images. They are key to how Hausman’s robots operate.
In a recent demonstration, a Physical Intelligence-powered pair of robot arms did what is, believe it or not, one of the hardest tasks in robotics: folding laundry. Clothes can take on any shape and require surprising flexibility and dexterity to handle, so roboticists can’t script the sequence of actions that will tell a robot exactly how to move its limbs to retrieve and fold laundry.
Physical Intelligence’s system can remove clothes from a dryer and neatly fold them using a system that learned how to do this task on its own, with no input from humans other than a mountain of data for it to digest. That demonstration, and others like it, was impressive enough that earlier this month, the company raised $400 million from investors including Jeff Bezos and OpenAI.
My point? OBVIOUSLY we are in just the first inning of the AI revolution. Roger is describing the WORST CASE scenario with current LLM generative AI. But tech visionaries like Verses AI and Physical Intelligence are already deep into the NEXT generation of AI agents and robotics. There are 50+ more AI start-ups worldwide today, with $billions invested in taking LLM-based generative AI into the NEXT generation of practical AI use cases. As the old saying goes, "Rome was not built in one night."
PS--my firm, Transformity Media, Inc., is in VERY DEEP discussions with various AI trading system companies to partner with and bring AI trading to our subscribers worldwide--stay tuned!
Final point: We are working on the final phase of buffing out our Buy List this week and will get it updated as soon as possible, but don't be in a rush to get fully invested in the AI/Trumpian/Crypto economy. There are a lot of very promising opportunities, yes, but there is no need to rush into the "next big thing."
PS—We are also close to FINALLY renewing ALL our subscribers to 1) TR Ultra Growth 2) the TR Ultra Monthly Income service and introducing our TR All-Access PLUS service, which includes Ultra Growth/Ultra Monthly Income/ALL-Access Trading room, later next week. A TR Crypto Trader service is ALSO in formation with an exciting young editor DEEP in the Crypto space (a partner at a leading Crypto organization)- there is much more to come with that new service!
Note: After a 60-day renewal period, which starts next week--non-renewed subscriptions will be removed from these services-- we are very excited to take our investment research services to new heights with all of you!
Toby