Deep Research + Patience + Transformational Change = 878% Outperformance vs. SP 500 Index Since 2012
2020-2025 Ultra Growth Portfolio Up 473.56% vs. SP 500 89.85%
Deep Research + Patience + Transformational Change
= 878% Outperformance vs. SP 500 Index Since 2012
It's Time For You To RENEW Transformity Ultra Growth Investing+!
Hey Reader,
First, the news that Nvidia's earnings after the bell met most of our assumptions. But the "meh" Jensen in-depth interview on CNBC at 7pm EST did not move the needle.
Nvidia foresees NVL systems and the next generation Blackwell Ultra ramping “simultaneously” -- which increases the pressure to deliver this fiscal year.
Nvidia beat consensus estimates by just $1.15 billion this quarter, its smallest beat of the last seven quarters, as it reported revenue of $39.33 billion, up 77.9% YoY.
Of the $200 billion in revenue expected this year, roughly $100 billion will come from NVL systems, generating 30,000 to 35,000 racks.
In short--when sales momentum slows in tech land, the PRICE momentum traders exit the trade.
FYI an "NVL rack" refers to a specialized server rack designed for high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications, particularly utilizing Nvidia's advanced GPU H100 and new Blackwell H200 GPUs and rack connection technologies. The term "NVL" is often associated with Nvidia's latest Blackwell GPUs and their related infrastructure, designed to optimize the efficiency of AI training and inference tasks.
Nvidia's NVL racks can incorporate multiple high-powered GPUs, enabling them to handle massive computational loads. For instance, the Nvidia Blackwell GB200 NVL72 rack system can combine up to 72 GPUs, connected via NVLink technology, which enhances bandwidth and facilitates efficient data transfer among the GPUs, effectively stitches them together into a powerful virtual computing resource capable of exceeding 1.4 petaflops of performance--like an IBM mainframe at 20X faster speed.
Action to Take: We are selling our NVDA positions from May 2023 after an amazing RUN AS A Source of Funds for new positions and selling call options against remaining shares--I see more significant opportunities with that capital in what we have come to call "Primary Digital AI-Enhanced Utilities" ..more on this new sector...keep reading!
But sometimes a picture says a thousand words--and the Mt. Everest-like explosion in GPU demand has, based on the price action, been MORE THAN priced in for next few quarters:
PS --is it time to add back SMCI? Well, we have had a BLAST trading the 2X $SMCX options over the last few weeks in the All Access trading room--but at least the short term outlook for SMCI with the following Blackwell GPUs looks uninspiring.
Super Micro Computer was in focus today as Barclays--who has been an original bull with yours truly, reinstated coverage and expressed caution on the artificial intelligence server company, citing "limited visibility" for AI server builds, mainly related to Nvidia's Blackwell offerings.
SMCI Shares fell 9.5% in late morning trading.
"While we recognize [Super Micro Computer's] leadership position in AI server and direct liquid cooling as we expect it would be among the first to ship B200 HGX servers in March-Q, we believe that its competitive moat is shrinking and its checkered past could limit the P/E multiples investors are willing to pay for the stock," analyst George Wang wrote in a note to clients.
Wang, who has a Neutral rating and $59 price target on the stock, added it does not seem like investors want to provide "meaningful multiple expansion" given the lower-margin AI server business.
There are also fundamental concerns related to the Charles Liang-led company, including the aforementioned shrinking moat as competitors like Dell Enterprise and Celistica have caught up in AI servers; and there are concerns about margin pressures related to Nvidia's NVL72 GB200/300 racks.
"Initial Blackwell cycle should also have some ramp-up costs, steep learning curves and limited higher-margin pull-through (storage/services), which could drag down margins; thus, we believe it will be tough for [Super Micro Computer] to hit its 14-17% GM target in the near term," Wang added."
I am with Barclys on SMCI-- we made 10X on our first SMCI investment in 7 months! It was also fun and very profitable to TRADE the 2X SMCX ahead of Tuesday's deadline for update financials (to maintain its Nasdaq listing)-- but major AI Data Center builders--especially the Hyperscalers--will likely look to other server container providers given SMCI's dodgy financials.
Next up, our updated AI Data Center Tech Stack Buy Unders
Sadly, some subscribers who have not yet renewed their TR UltraGrowth newsletter subscription (after a free ride for 16 months!!!) must have other investment research subscriptions that exceeded our 23-25 >340% returns (really?).
Here is your LAST update buy under and target for those who are going to miss the NEW technology sectors we are adding starting the day AFTER March 17 St. Patrick's Day which is the
Last day for you to RENEW for a 2025-2026 subscription to TR Ultra Growth
Last day to be a founding subscriber to our exciting, highly lucrative TR Ultra Monthly Income service (see below)
Last day to get ALL our subscriptions PLUS All Access Trading room privileges for just $495 per year
And like Vito Corleone, I have an renewal offer for you that you can't refuse, starting at just $97 a year for the number one performing newsletter on earth 2023-2025!
The REALLY Key Point: I am seriously excited by the fact that of our 200+ renewals last week, about 75% were one or two-year subscriptions to our new All Access PRO service--AND the vast majority of the first 200+ renewals were 2-year subscriptions to our All Access PRO bundle of
1) TR Ultra Growth Investor
2) Our new New TR Ultra Monthly Income Investor (which launches Monday, March 4th)
3) TR Discord Trading Room Membership (On March 17--BEFORE We arrive at our favorite Irish pub--we will be DELETING our existing All Access Trading Room and sending invitations to our renewed members and the few 5 YEAR members which expire in May/June this year).
Note to All Current Access Members: We will unfortunately have to "kick" you from our All Access Trading Room by March 17 IF you have not purchased a new 1 or 2 year All Access membership by St. Patty's Day--which we do NOT EVER want to do (but this is a for profit service not a non-profit!). Note the process:
Kick a Member: Kicking a member will remove them from the server, but they can rejoin if they have a NEW link. To kick a member, follow these steps:
Open your Discord server and navigate to the member list.
Right-click on the member’s name you wish to kick.
Click on "Kick [Member]". Confirm your action, and they will be removed from the server.
Key Point: Today's All Access PRO includes 1-2 year subscriptions to TR Ultra Growth and TR Ultra Monthly income in ADDITION to the Discord Trading Room!
PLUS EXPANDING our coverage to at least 3 OTHER key secular growth parts of the stock market (that is, AFTER we patiently let the market in general come back to earth, shake out some of the FOMO YOLO speculators, and get a much-needed pull of the AI Data Center Tech Stack + Power Infrastructure sectors). The new sector I am most excited about is what I have come to label the "Global Digital UTILITIES +AI" platforms that are membership/subscription or advertising based digital platforms that 1) dominate their sectors and 2) are growing EPS at 3-5+ times faster than the overall "market" and 3) are just beginning to integrate inferential AI to create a vast exclusive data based moat around their customer value proposition!
Final Pitch: Here are a few "OG" subscribers (15-25+ years subscribed from ChangeWave Investing days!) who recently subscribed for our two-year All Access Pro subscription (which again includes Ultra Growth/Ultra Monthly/TR Discord Trading Room) and asked them, "Why did you go with a 2-Year All-Acces Pro," and I LOVED their answers.
TC: "Toby, I have been with you 22+ years-- for every one of your stock pick failures, I have 10X more 500%-2000% winners-- Apple in 2006 (after you interviewed Steve Jobs at the iPhone reveal), Nvidia 2006/2012/2023, Tesla IPO, Centrus Energy May 2023, USA Compression USAC/Energy Transfer/Antero Midstream/DCP in April 2020 in the pandemic crisis, and of course short the QQQ and XLU going into the pandemic in Feb 2020, LONG Moderna in Feb 2020 and then the SPAC trades like Nikola $2.55 to $85.55 ??
I retired early following your CW/TR investment philosophy of "riding the waves of secular 3-5X higher growth inflections of macro and micro transformational change."-- I am NOW looking forward to $20,000 of monthly income from the TR Ultra Monthly Income and the 2026 IPO of Verseon so I can build my dream home in North Scottsdale near you and Marjorie!"
More TC: "Look--the math and ROI on the $795 I invested in my TR All Acces Pro 2 year is unbeatable! First, the $795 subscription cost is tax deductible, for Pete's sake- your new subscribers will earn their subscription cost back in ONE put option sale or one long/short option trade! The 2 years subscription ROI for just $795 is just crazy--with a $450,000 Ultra Monthly Income portfolio generating $9-$11k a month, the two-year subscriber gets his or her subscription $$ back from their first dividend in the first week! "
Thanks, TC. LOL--can you tell that TC is an accountant :)?
George P. said, "Toby, you must have been deep into the wine when you came up with that $795 2-year All-Acces Pro subscription deal. I did a quick look at the money I have made following your advice to sell put options and call options on your favorite TR positions --I have a MINUS $8 cost average on all the energy plays we dove into in the pandemic meltdown--and following your advice to sell 25% of SMCI meltup each leg up to Feb 24 made me $650,000 on my $50k investment in May 2023-- in my Roth!
I can't wait to get $15-$20k a month in TAX-FREE dividends--I am going to reinvest those dividends until it is a $2 million ROTH--and move to your favorite country, Spain--come visit--Rioja and fresh seafood on me!"
David D said, “Toby…just a note of thanks for all you have done for our family. 3 kids through private college thanks to the investments you recommended. We are retiring to the second home we bought in Florida, thanks again to the profits we earned in Transformity Investing. Keep them coming—I need a big fancy motor home, too!”
There are lots more All Access affidavits, but you get the gist--just one option play as we did a few weeks ago with $500 in call options that went to $2800 (on HIMS ahead of their Super Bowl Ad) and $450 in income from put option sale paid for 10 years of All Access Pro subscriptions--the return-on-investment on $495 a year is astronomical.
While our All Access PRO subscription includes TR Ultra Growth Investor/TR Ultra Monthly Income (starting March 17) and our Transformity All Access Discord Trading room, it is in the All Access trading room that we are being VERY successful in being about 40% in cash currently while the ocean of confusion builds in DC for our Ultra Growth portfolio but are TRADING the "fat pitches" that come to us every week.
There were a few fat pitches option trade performances we opened and closed last week--lots of happy All-Access members! --and this does NOT INCLUDE the 100% profit we made from selling 2/21 SMCI put options as well!
Any ONE of these trades just last week alone pays for 4-5 YEARS of All Access Pro or, better said, a 4X ROI on your All Access subscription in ONE DAY!
SMCX Call Option
Strike Date: 02/21/2025
Strike Price: $70.00
Option Type: CALL DEFI 2X LNG SMCI
Purchase Date: 02/18/2025
Number of Contracts: 1
Price per Contract: $30.24
Total Cost: $1,450.66
Current Value $3,024.26
Profit/Loss: +$1,573.60
HIMS Call Option
Strike Date: 02/14/2025
Strike Price: $43.00
Option Type: CALL HIMS & HERS HEAL
Purchase Date: 02/13/2025
Number of Contracts: 2
Price per Contract: $14.24
Total Cost: $563.32
Current Value: $2,848.59
Profit/Loss: +$2,285.27
BOIL Call Option
Strike Date: 02/21/2025
Strike Price: $75.00
Option Type: CALL PROSHARES TR II
Purchase Date: 02/19/2025
Number of Contracts: 2
Price per Contract: $14.54
Total Cost: $621.32
Current Value: $2,908.59
Profit/Loss: +$2,287.27
Also, there is this hidden value to the All Access Discord room.
Like the good old days of ChangeWave Experts Group providing us early intel on secular transformational events (in fact, MANY of those members are still with me!), we have in All Access some very astute investors and industry experts who are not shy wallflowers to share their expertise and technical analysis chops --so the MORE industry experts who happen to be self-directed portfolio managers is a real side benefit of All Access that I hoped would evolve--the MORE the Wealthier!
And there is this reality as well--many of our new subscribers are relatively new to building and running their stock portfolio--especially building positions in small-cap hyper-growth stocks. The portfolio management training for many has also been of real value to being an All Access Pro member!
OK, Reader --the Sales Pitch Over! Here is the Simple Subscription Process I HOPE YOU TAKE For All of our TR Buy/Hold/Sell Equity Research products
1) Go to https://www.transformityresearch.com/
2) Look down to the bottom right of your screen and see this image--click on Register
2) Register or Update Your User Name and Password
3) Click on Membership Packages
4) Select Your Membership and Complete Transaction
And you are subscribed again!!
Action to Take: Subscriber or RENEW TODAY RIGHT NOW before you get busy and forget! It only takes 2-3 minutes to renew, and make sure you get all the NEW stocks and HUGE monthly income dividends, too!
PS--This is a real $10,000+ MONTHLY INCOME My $450,000 Ultra Income ROTH Portfolio generates from my Schwab account!
PSS: I have also re-organized our Transformational Secular Inflection stock groups ("Halos" for short) into 15 major themes-- to organize the fact that the multi-$trillions of transformational secular financial/economic + regulatory changes coming to the US Economy via Trumpism with control of the US House and Senate.
Key point: This could be the largest, most economically powerful transformative inflection since the introduction of the modern point-and-click internet in the early 1990's.
THUS--the dozen or so primary potential stock and ETF beneficiary sectors we have identified for 2025 AFTER the new administration is done blowing everything up and the momentum trade unwinds
Our New Buy List will be created from these sectors and names include:
1) The AI Data Center Clean Power + Nat Gas Pipelines+ Nuclear Power Grid Halo ($CORZ $SO $OKLO $SMR $IREN $BTBT $VST $NNE $CEG $NEE $PWR $LTBR $TT $EXC $ETN $POWL $MPLX $AMZA $MLPA $AMLP )
2) The Quantum Computing + EVTOL Halo AFTER the 80% correction is done! ($RGTI $RGTIW $QBTS $EVTL $JOBY $JOBY-WT $ACHR $ACHR-WT $QUBT)
3) Enterprise AI + Agents Software Revolution Halo (finishing picks next week--$VRSSF/$SNOW/$CRM/$TEAM/$WDAY/AXON/BABA/FTNT/SAIL for sure)
4) The Top 25% of Households' GIANT Discretionary Spending WAVE, aka the Top 25% Income/Wealth Halo- note that the top 25% of US Households account for 80%+ of discretionary spending on /non-essential luxury goods/entertainment/dining out/travel + own 65% of total household wealth (so how many trips to Europe/Asia/Italy/Greece/France/UK do YOU ahve planned for 2025--between us my wife Marjorie and I have 5!).
5) The 2025-2029 IPO/Merger&Acquisition/Investment Banking Halo (Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Jeffries)
6) The 2025-2029 Federal Deregulation Wave Halo (Highly regulated industry beneficiaries including crypto/banking/conglomerates/Mag 7)
7) Record Total Budget Deficit/Federal Debt (hold Gold via $GDXU)
8) Top Digital Consumer Spending Platformity Dominators (like Toast /Affirm/UI/Square/PayPal)
9) AI Enhanced Digital Ad Delivery Platforms (like /META/Amazon/Shopify)
10) The Physical AI “Digital Labor & AI WarFighting” Revolution: AI Robotics+RFID Automation+ AI-Driven Drone Warfare + AI Warfighting software . . . and
Join us TODAY--$$Money Back Guarantee! https://www.transformityresearch.com/tr-ultra-growth
Tobin Smith--Founder/CIO Transformity Research/Wealth Management/Transformity Capital Markets
Founder of ChangeWave Research (now part of S&P NYSE listed Global Research )/2X NY Times Best Selling Author ChangeWave Investing & ChangeWave Investing 2.0 published by Random House/Editor Transformity Ultra Growth/Ultra Monthly Income/All Access Trading Room/Managing Member TransMed One TSIG LLC/ 14-Year Contributor on Fox News' Bulls & Bears /Host @ Fox Business